Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model

We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.     

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析方法的比较研究

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析是进行生命线工程系统规划、设计、改造与优化的基础。因此 ,寻找一种高效的适应性强的系统可靠性分析方法对实际工程应用具有重要的意义。本文主要介绍两种高效的网络系统两终端连通可靠性分析方法———递推分解算法和有序二分决策图算法。首先 ,分别对两种算法的原理及实现过程进行了详细的论述和说明 ,并且用c语言编制了二分决策图算法的计算程序。然后 ,利用这两种方法及随机模拟算法对 2 0个以往研究中的经典算例和两个实际工程网络———河南省电力网和上海市浦西供水管网 ,进行了网络系统抗震连通可靠性分析。通过对实例分析结果的比较研究 ,得到了一些经验性的结论 ,以期为优化设计工程网络时选择系统可靠性的分析工具提供参考。研究表明 ,由于递推分解算法具有适应性强和能够求得问题近似解的优点 ,因此有良好的实际工程应用前景。     

Linking the stressors and stressing the linkages: Human—environment vulnerability and brownfield redevelopment in New York City

This paper suggests that the mitigation of one hazard—soil contamination—can unintentionally affect vulnerabilities and perceived vulnerabilities to additional stressors in the local human—environment system through a study of brownfield redevelopment in New York City. This study employs a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) approach to identify components that contribute to vulnerabilities and perceived vulnerabilities in the local community, based on the thematic analysis of 55 interviews with residents from four neighbourhoods with brownfield redevelopment activities in New York City. This analysis of resident observations and perceptions of post-redevelopment hazard conditions indicates how mitigating vulnerability to one urban hazard—soil contamination—has the potential to affect vulnerabilities and perceived vulnerabilities to additional hazards like flooding and air pollution because of the complex linkages among multiple stressors. A causal model of vulnerability to the unintended impacts of brownfield redevelopment is subsequently developed to further demonstrate the interactive linkages among exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to multiple stressors. This study also provides measures that stakeholders can monitor and evaluate over time to track the socio-spatial and environmental implications of brownfield redevelopment and subsequent changes in the local human—environment system.     

基于自组织映射与哈斯图方法的地表水水质评价研究

地表水水质评价是水资源管理与保护中的非常重要的问题.本研究主要目的是应用自组织映射(Self-Organizing Map,SOM)与哈斯图方法(Hasse Diagram Technique,HDT)对地表水水质监测数据集进行分类、建模、解释与评估.以西苕溪流域为例,对其50个断面于2010年6月-2011年5月进行月频率的水质监测.应用SOM分析发现,水质参数可分成10个聚类组,反映了西苕溪流域水质丰、平与枯水期特征,pH、高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)在各个水期变化不大;溶解氧(DO)在枯水期与平水期相对较高,水质具有一定的自净能力;丰水期的氨氮(NH4+-N)、总氮(TN)与总磷(TP)值相对较小;西苕溪流域TN:TP(氮磷质量比)平均为46,监测期间变幅较大为2～482,监测期内有66.7％的水质样本处于磷限制状态,仅有3.2％处于氮限制状态,存在氮限制与磷限制交替出现的状态,表明流域总体处于磷限制状态.选取CODMn、NH4+-N、TN 与TP指标进行HDT综合分析,反映流域上游水质较好,中、下游水质相对较差;敏感性分析结果表明,CODMn敏感性数值最大为235,其次是TN为156,、NH4+-N与TP分别是61与34,表明西苕溪流域的CODMn、TN存在较大的环境风险.建议在西苕溪流域即将开展的环境整治与规划时应考虑开发相关的削减技术与制定相关措施政策以减少CODMn、TN污染.     

“部分排序”在环境比较评价中的应用实例

将运筹学中“部分排序”的概念引入对污染物的环境影响比较评价中,以环境中常见的10种残留农药为应用实例,用Hasse图表示出比较评价的结果。和普遍排序技术相比,部分排序的评价结果简明直观、合理、可靠。Hasse图技术充分考虑了所要评价的各方面因素,避免了在普遍排序过程中由于确定评价模型中的权值而带来的主观因素的影响。     

环境监测技术竞赛方案设计

技术竞赛是促进监测水平提高的好方法，经过多次技术竞赛活动，制定出一套较科学适用的实施方案，基础理论采用笔试，样品测试采用尤登双样图。并设计出程序文件和测试样品配制方法，实际应用效果良好。     

兰州市大气颗粒物中化学特征污染物的筛选

采用综合评分法对兰州市大气颗粒物中化学特征污染物进行筛选. 综合评分法的指标体系主要由环境检出率、潜在危害指数和环境影响度等9项指标组成,综合分值总分为280分. 筛选结果表明:苯并芘(综合评分为272,下同)、Pb(262)、Cr(262)、Ni(262)、Cd(262)、Cu(246)、苯并蒽(230)、二苯并[a,h]蒽(215)、Zn(214)、苯并荧蒽(212)10种化学污染物得分较高,为兰州市大气颗粒物中重点关注的化学污染物. 而Hasse图解法筛选结果表明,苯并芘、Pb、Cr、二苯并[a,h]蒽、Ni、Cd、Cu、Zn、苯并蒽9种化学污染物的危害性排序靠前. 在综合评分法的基础上利用Hasse图解法对化学特征污染物进行筛选,按照危害性大小,兰州市大气颗粒物中化学特征污染物可分为5个层次,依次为:①苯并芘、Pb和Cr;②Ni、二苯并[a,h]蒽;③Cu、Cd;④苯并蒽、Zn;⑤苯并荧蒽. 综合评分法和Hasse图解法的结合应用既简化了单一Hasse图解法筛选化学特征污染物的繁琐过程,又可实现对污染物危害性的较全面认识.      

村镇公共安全评价体系研究——以河北省沧州市南大港一分区为例

将环境承载力评价理论引入到农村公共安全研究中,根据农村公共安全环境承载力指标体系的构建原则,选取一级指标5个,二级指标10个,基于鱼骨图分析法建立村镇公共安全体系。结合统计软件SPSS,采用主成分分析法(PCA),对村镇公共安全体系进行排序,找出影响村镇公共安全水平的重要因子,为改善村庄公共安全风险提供了重要参考价值。结果表明:一分区各村公共安全承载能力差异较大,且基础设施承载因子和土地承载因子是影响村庄公共安全承载能力最重要因子,加大公共安全基础设施的投入、有效利用闲置土地,可以较好地提高村镇公共安全承载能力。     

重庆雾的酸化机理及物态的特征

本文对重庆雾滴谱及含水量进行了对比分析.重庆大气污染严重,使雾的物化性质有雾滴平均直径下降、数密度增加、含水量偏低的特点.文中用主成分分析、相关分析及相图等方法对雾水酸度来源、形成机理进行了探讨.     

基于偏序集的采空区煤自燃可能性评价模型

为了解决采空区煤自燃可能性评价方法中的赋权争议问题,基于偏序集理论,提出了偏序集评价模型。阐明评价指标并确定其等级划分准则,运用偏序集评价模型得到Hasse图,通过Hasse图展现的层集信息判别采空区煤自燃的危险程度。利用该模型对某煤矿17个煤样的自燃情况进行了判别,评价结果准确合理。研究结果表明:该模型避免了以往研究中的赋权争议问题,克服了样本量不足致使模型无法应用的问题,其评价结果置信度高。